Ever since the Patriots pulled off their incredible comeback over the Falcons in the Super Bowl we have heard plenty about their mental toughness in the fourth quarter, and their superior physical conditioning.
Now five games into the 2017 season, the Patriots might need to start running more hill sprints.
Thursday’s 19-14 win over the Buccaneers was a nice bounce-back performance from the Patriots, especially given the circumstances — short week, on the road, without Rob Gronkowski. You take the win and don’t look back.
But it continued a troubling trend of the Patriots wilting in the second half, and the fourth quarter in particular.
Jameis Winston was 13 of 25 for 109 yards through three quarters, then 13 of 21 for 225 yards and a touchdown in the fourth. The Bucs outscored the Patriots in the fourth quarter, 7-3, and could have had more points if not for a couple of missed field goals.
The offense, meanwhile, stopped producing after halftime. Tom Brady led the Patriots to 13 points in the first half, but just two field goals in the second.
And this has been the trend all season. Look at the Patriots’ points by quarter, compared with their opponents:
Patriots — 40-57-23-28
Opponents — 23-48-20-51
The Patriots are starting out hot, but not finishing. We saw it against Kansas City, when the Chiefs outscored the Patriots, 21-0, in the fourth. Against the Saints, the Patriots had 30 points before halftime, just 6 after. The Patriots were plus-2 in the second half against the Texans and minus-2 against the Panthers, but needed desperation touchdowns both times to get on the scoreboard. And the Bucs almost pulled off a comeback from trailing, 16-7, in the fourth quarter.
The Patriots’ offense has mostly had a great start to the season, and the defense is starting to figure it out. But their fourth-quarter execution is lacking on both sides of the ball.
Other observations after rewatching the game tape:
When the Patriots had the ball
■ The Buccaneers played Cover-2, Cover-4 or man-to-man for pretty much the entire game, and Brady didn’t have too much trouble diagnosing the coverages, completing 13 straight passes for one stretch in the second and third quarters.
The Patriots moved the ball pretty well, gaining 402 yards and piecing together four drives of at least 50 yards. The Bucs just took away the deep ball, allowing only two passes of 20-plus yards on 44 dropbacks. Brady’s 7.6 yards per attempt fell short of the 9.0 he entered the game with (though not as bad as the 6.8 against Carolina). Almost all of Brady’s work came over the middle, especially against zone coverage.
■ The Bucs don’t necessarily substitute on defense to match up against the offense’s personnel, and the Patriots took advantage of some mismatches. They got James White lined up on defensive end Ryan Russell, and Brady hit White for a 24-yard completion on a wheel route. They got Chris Hogan lined up against a linebacker, resulting in a nice 19-yard catch-and-run on a drag route across the middle.
■ And Brady took advantage of second-year cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, who consistently was giving big cushions at the line of scrimmage. Hogan’s 5-yard touchdown, and passes of 17 and 34 yards to Brandin Cooks, all were a result of soft coverage from Hargreaves.
■ The Bucs blitzed just three times all game, relying on their front four to get pressure. White’s 24-yarder and Cooks’s 17-yarder came against the blitz, but Adarius Glanton’s sack-strip late in the third quarter came on a five-man blitz. Brady and Marcus Cannon never saw him coming around the edge.
■ For the second game in a row, the Patriots ran the ball pretty well but didn’t stick with it. Mike Gillislee had 12 rushes for 49 yards (4.1 average) against Carolina, and 12 rushes for 52 yards (4.3 average) against the Bucs, ripping off runs of 6, 7, 9, 5, 6, and 6 yards. The Patriots called just 22 rushes against 44 passing plays.
■ Dion Lewis had a great game, gaining 63 yards on nine touches, and he is becoming a bigger part of the offense each week. He ran hard and decisively, and he showed an extra gear on his 31-yard rush.
■ The Patriots really need to improve their short-yardage running game. Early in the second quarter, they reached second and 1 but couldn’t convert the first down. Gillislee was stuffed on second down, and the Patriots curiously went shotgun-empty on third down, with Brady taking a sack (he didn’t see Hogan come open). And for the last few weeks, when they get near the goal line, they have to throw the ball, because they have no faith in the offensive line. This is a big issue.
■ Of the Bucs’ three sacks, only one was the result of a defender beating a blocker — Clinton McDonald powering through David Andrews (McDonald also had a run stuff against Andrews and handled him pretty well for most of the night). Gerald McCoy’s was a coverage sack, and Glanton’s was a scheme issue. Nate Solder continues to struggle, leading CBS analyst Tony Romo to wonder if he’s dealing with an injury. Tight end Dwayne Allen, who wasn’t targeted on a pass all night, had an up-and-down game as a blocker, allowing a run stuff and a pressure to Devante Bond.
■ The fact that Brady didn’t look Allen’s way once is yet another sign that Brady has no confidence in the new No. 2 tight end. With Gronkowski out, Brady targeted the other tight ends just once, an incompletion for Jacob Hollister. Only five players caught passes — three receivers (Hogan, Cooks, and Danny Amendola) and two running backs (White and Lewis).
When the Buccaneers had the ball
We were most interested in charting the Patriots’ coverage tendencies, to see if and what they changed following the myriad breakdowns against the Panthers. Here’s what we saw:
■ The scheme was much more simplified, and Stephon Gilmore matched up with Mike Evans for most of the night. But that doesn’t mean they just played man coverage. In fact, it was pretty much a 50-50 split between man and zone for the first three quarters, until the Patriots went mostly man to man on the Bucs’ final drives. The Patriots also employed some hybrid man-zone coverages on a couple of plays.
■ The Patriots used man coverage 30 times, and went man on the majority of third downs. Winston was 11-of-25 passing for 164 yards, a touchdown, and a sack, while adding two scrambles for 11 yards. The Bucs gained a first down 11 times, and went 3 for 9 on third down.
■ They used zone 19 times — almost always a Cover-2 or a Cover-3 — with Winston completing 13 of 18 passes for 155 yards and a sack. The Bucs gained seven first downs and went 1 for 2 on third down.
■ And in hybrid coverage, Winston went 2 for 2 for 15 yards, one first down, and 0 for 1 on third down.
■ There was only one major breakdown — a 16-yard completion in the flat to tight end Cameron Brate, which was moved back 10 yards because of a block in the back on Tampa Bay. Brate was wide open by at least 10 yards on the play, but it’s unclear who was in the wrong. If the Patriots were in Cover-4, then Patrick Chung blew his responsibility. If they were in Cover-2, it was Malcolm Butler’s fault.
■ Curiously, the Bucs didn’t steal a page from the Panthers’ playbook with bunch formations and presnap motion. They used a bunch formation just three times — a sack by Kyle Van Noy and Trey Flowers late in the second quarter, DeSean Jackson’s 41-yard catch in the fourth quarter, and Brate’s 17-yard catch, also in the fourth. Gilmore trailed Evans all over the field, but on the sack play, Evans was lined up in the bunch, and Gilmore was on the other side of the field, perhaps intentionally. On Jackson’s 41-yarder, he wasn’t in the bunch.
■ That big play to Jackson was against man coverage, with Butler giving him a 10-yard cushion at the line of scrimmage, then retreating after the snap. Duron Harmon took a bad angle to the ball, and it’s possible that Dont’a Hightower was supposed to cover the middle of the field and was out of position. But the best part of that play was the speed and hustle shown by Devin McCourty to chase down Jackson from behind. Those were some serious wheels.
■ There didn’t seem to be much difference in the Patriots’ coverage in the fourth quarter. They played with some bigger cushions, but not exclusively. Mostly, it was a case of Winston and the Bucs finally executing some plays.
Winston’s accuracy was all over the place in the first three quarters, throwing high to Doug Martin on what should have been an easy third-down conversion, and throwing too far to Jackson on what could have been a touchdown after Jackson beat Butler with a stop-and-go. Brate also had a few bad drops.
Winston made some beautiful throws in the fourth. He even had O.J. Howard open on the final play, but Howard turned the wrong way. Brate also made a great catch in traffic for an 18-yard touchdown. Chung had tight coverage and McCourty was in position for double coverage, but it was a perfect throw and catch.
■ Gilmore didn’t have any communication issues — the Bucs didn’t really test him — and he played a nice game. Four of Evans’s five catches came in zone coverage, and Gilmore made the tackles immediately. Butler did a great job against Jackson for the first three quarters, but allowed three catches for 94 yards in the fourth.
■ The front seven is certainly a work in progress. The Bucs were gashing the Patriots in the run game, gaining 54 yards on their first six runs and creating a hole large enough to drive a car through on a 17-yard gain for Martin. But the Patriots also had five run stuffs, with some great tackles by Van Noy and McCourty. The Bucs also asked Howard, a rookie tight end, to block Trey Flowers, and Flowers came up with a run stuff, a half-sack, and forced Howard into two penalties on one drive.
Special teams
■ Bill Belichick might have his special teams players running extra laps this weekend after committing four penalties for 27 yards. Brandon Bolden, who is only on the team for his special teams prowess, committed two penalties — including an unforgivable offsides on a punt that gave the Bucs a first down — and tackled Amendola on his 40-yard return.
■ Much of punting is situational, and there’s so much more to it than just kicking it high and far. But it is noteworthy that Patriots punter Ryan Allen is 31st among regular punters with a 37.6-yard net average, he has forced just one fair catch on 22 punts, and his 100 return yards are sixth-most. Pro Football Focus says Allen is their “lowest-graded punter by a significant margin.’’