You may have noticed in the Globe preview section that I picked the Orioles to win the American League East. Didn’t want to do it, felt I owed it to them.
Actually, I really didn’t want to do it. While I do believe dynamo third baseman Manny Machado will be right there with Mike Trout and Mookie Betts in the AL Most Valuable Player race, I’m skeptical that Baltimore has the pitching to come out on top. But we’ve underestimated them before — they did win the division two years ago — and it’s happening again. They may not be the best team in the division, but I doubt they’re the worst, where everyone seems to be picking them. Maybe I overcompensated in the other direction.
I did end up going with them by default. Toronto and Tampa Bay are significantly flawed. Oh, and what about that heavy favorite, the Red Sox? They probably will win it. But right now I’m getting some serious worst-case-scenario vibes from them, and they’re hard to ignore.
Let me ask you this: Chris Sale was essentially David Ortiz’s replacement, right? One slugging superstar goes, a pitching superstar comes in, the offense slips a little, the pitching gets a little better, and everything remains basically in balance.
But if David Price’s elbow issue ends up becoming something that keeps him off the mound for significant length of time, then Sale is no longer his complement at the front of the rotation, but his de facto replacement. Price was frustrating last year, but try replacing his 230 innings and 17 wins on the fly and then you’ll see how important he really was.
Meanwhile, Tyler Thornburg’s shoulder is barking, Drew Pomeranz is already on the DL, Hanley Ramirez hasn’t played first base yet . . . I don’t know, it seems like this spring has brought some troubling harbingers so far.
It got me thinking, though, about what the best-case and worst-case scenarios for this season will be. Not necessarily for the team; those are obvious. The best-case is winning the World Series. The worst-case is rehiring Bobby Valentine by the end of April. I mean for the individuals that make up this roster.
And within reason of course. I’m not predicting Betts to hit 74 homers or Sale to win 32 games. So let’s take a spin through the roster and try to put some parameters on what might be possible — at both ends of the spectrum.
DUSTIN PEDROIA
Best-case scenario: An age-33 season like ’99 Craig Biggio (160 games, 16 HRs, .294/.386/.457, 56 doubles).
Worst-case scenario: An age-33 season like ’05 Mark Loretta (105 games, 3 homers, .280/.360/.347).
ANDREW BENINTENDI
Best: Are you familiar with Fred Lynn’s fine work in 1975?
Worst: The revelation of undiscovered (and probably non-existent) flaw in his swing.
MOOKIE BETTS
Best: An .897 OPS, 31 homers, and spectacular defense in right field. So, a repeat of last season. Seriously, how much better can he get?
Worst: I don’t know, he drops a bowling ball on his foot? Nothing other than injury, honestly. He’s Superman in a world without Kryptonite.
HANLEY RAMIREZ
Best: A duplicate of 2016 in terms of production, durability, attitude, and ability to send Dellin Betances’s fastball deep into the night.
Worst: A duplicate of 2015, including prolonged injury, underwhelming production, and apparent indifference.
XANDER BOGAERTS
Best: A full season of his 2016 first-half performance (.329/.388/.475).
Worst: A full season of his 2016 second-half performance (.253/.317/.412).
JACKIE BRADLEY JR.
Best: A couple more months like last May (.381/.474/.701).
Worst: A couple more months like last August (.198/.274/.377).
PABLO SANDOVAL
Best: He stays healthy and relatively slim, plays steady D, and bats .285-.290 with a bunch of timely hits.
Worst: How could it possibly be worse than last year? He plays two games rather than three?
MITCH MORELAND
Best: 1999 Brian Daubach, with a better glove.
Worst: 2002 Tony Clark, but shorter. (2008 Sean Casey, 2005 J.T. Snow also acceptable.)
SANDY LEON
Best: That last season (.310/.369/.476 in 78 games) proves the true measure of who he is as a player.
Worst: That everything before last season (.187/.258/.225 in 75 games) proves the true measure of who he is as a player.
CHRIS SALE
Best: He matches his standard White Sox numbers — 220 innings, 220 strikeouts, a 3.00-ish ERA — but gets standard Red Sox run support. Result: 22 wins. Minimum.
Worst: The Red Sox marketing department does not run its quirky throwback jersey concepts by him before signing off.
RICK PORCELLO
Best: That he repeats his form of last year (22-4, 3.15 ERA, 2016 Cy Young Award winner).
Worst: That he reverts to his form of two years ago (9-15, 4.92 ERA, 2005 Matt Clement clone).
DAVID PRICE
Best: That he’s healthy. That’s it. Because you’re damn sure going to miss him when Kyle Kendrick (4.72 ERA in Triple A last year) and Henry Owens are divvying up 33 starts.
Worst: That Dr. Andrews changes his opinion.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ
Best: 15-plus wins and a sub-3.30 ERA. He has the repertoire to excel.
Worst: Pitch-tipping and creaky knees continue to slow his growth.
STEVEN WRIGHT
Best: That he becomes a workhorse knuckleballer reminiscent of ’05 Tim Wakefield (16-12, 4.15 ERA, 225 innings).
Worst: That John Farrell mistakes him for Dave Roberts again.
CRAIG KIMBREL
Best: The ’16 K/9 (14.1) and H/9 (4.8) rates stay the same, and the BB/9 rate (5.1) is halved.
Worst: Walk-strikeout-walk-strikeout-homer.
TYLER THORNBURG
Best: He’s what Carson Smith was supposed to be last year.
Worst: He’s what Carson Smith was last year.
DREW POMERANZ
Best: He gets traded to the Padres for Anderson Espinoza. Too mean? OK, then this: His final numbers look something like his combined numbers with the ’16 Red Sox and Padres (11 wins, 3.32 ERA).
Worst: This forearm strain that has him starting the season on the DL becomes more ominous, while Espinoza rockets through the Padres system.
JOE KELLY
Best: That he’s as dominant in a large sample of relief work this year as he was in a small sample last year (14 games, 1.02 ERA, 21 strikeouts in 17.2 innings).
Worst: He’s the same exasperating enigma in relief that he was as a starter.
MATT BARNES
Best: That he pitches to the level of his stuff and has a season with an ERA below 4.00 for the first time.
Worst: That he continues to prove that velocity is a slugger’s friend when it isn’t accompanied by command and movement.
FERNANDO ABAD
Best: He’s Javier Lopez in 2008 (2.43 ERA in 70 games).
Worst: He’s Javier Lopez in 2009 (9.26 ERA in 14 games).
ROBBY SCOTT
Best: He becomes the pitching version of Daniel Nava, an Independent League refugee who helps the Red Sox significantly.
Worst: He pitches for the Red Sox this year like Fernando Abad did last year and ends up summering in Pawtucket again.
HEATH HEMBREE
Best: He adds a wrinkle to his repertoire to help him get out lefties (.858 OPS against, career) like he does righties (.634).
Worst: See above, but vice versa.
ROBBIE ROSS JR.
Best: He becomes ’13 Craig Breslow (1.81 ERA in 61 games).
Worst: He becomes ’14 Craig Breslow (5.96 ERA in 60 games).
CHRIS YOUNG
Best: Similar production to last season (.276/.352/.498) but without the injury-related interruption.
Worst: His hamstrings refuse to cooperate and the Red Sox are without one of the better bench bats in the league for a prolonged stretch.
BROCK HOLT
Best: Hits .280 while filling in all over the diamond. Basically, his 2015 season all over again, minus the fluky All-Star appearance.
Worst: Plays way too often because of injury to a superior player, wears down, and hits .250.
MARCO HERNANDEZ
Best: Hits over an extended stretch like he did during a 56-at-bat sample last year (.294/.357/.373).
Worst: Remember Cesar Crespo?
CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ
Best: That he’s reminiscent of Yadier Molina at age 26.
Worst: That he’s reminiscent of Izzy Molina at age 26.
Follow Chad Finn on Twitter at @GlobeChadFinn.
