WASHINGTON — News that Hillary Clinton is seriously considering liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren to join her on the Democratic presidential ticket has a lot of people excited.
Not so much the occupants of skyscrapers on Wall Street and beyond.
“If you go down a list of people, it’s the lone name that gets an audible reaction from groups — not a positive one,’’ said Brian Gardner, a Washington analyst with the investment bank Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc. who has spoken to numerous clients in recent weeks about Clinton’s potential vice presidential picks.
Warren’s name is synonymous with anxiety in much of corporate America, and where she lands at the end of the 2016 race has turned into a high-stakes parlor game for the business world.
The Clinton campaign is actively vetting Warren — along with several other Democrats — for the number two position on the ticket, a person familiar with the process told the Globe.
For many business leaders, the prospect makes their collective blood pressure spike. “She’s alienated pretty much everyone in the business community in her time in the Senate,’’ said one financial services executive.
Others see a silver lining: Some executives of large banks privately suggest that Warren would be less damaging to the financial sector as VP than if she remained in the Senate, especially given her perch on the powerful Senate Banking Committee.
And then there are those who are betting against Warren as vice president. “I don’t think anybody thinks it’s going to happen,’’ at least among industry people who really know what’s going on, said another executive.
“Senator Warren is savvy enough to know that she is far more powerful in her current role as a US senator than she would be as Hillary Clinton’s vice president, from a practical policy perspective,’’ said Isaac Boltansky, an analyst with Compass Point Research & Trading.
Regardless, Wall Street and other business sectors are on a jittery Warren Watch.
One reason for the nail-biting: Financial industry executives and analysts believe a new president and a fresh Congress in 2017 could provide an opportunity to secure some long-sought changes to the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law. Moderate Democrats, who generally support the law, believe some adjustments should be made, and could ally with its Republican critics to get them passed.
Warren is seen as a major obstacle to such deals — contributing to the frenzied speculation about her future and what it means for the industry. There’s also the very real possibility that Democrats will win control of the Senate, which is another moving piece in the Warren puzzle.
“There are serious debates with my clients and with other industry professionals about how impactful she could be on [the financial] space, if she were vice president,’’ versus how effective a legislator she might be in the Senate should it flip to Democratic control, Boltansky said.
Big business’s biggest lobbying force, the powerful US Chamber of Commerce, has been engaged in open warfare with Warren for some time. While the group doesn’t engage in presidential races, its CEO reiterated the group’s views on Warren last week as speculation about Clinton’s vice presidential options swirled.
“Senator Warren and her friends aren’t looking out for’’ American consumers, the chamber’s chief executive, Thomas Donohue, said in a speech last week. “They are looking to gather more power for themselves so that they can run the entire economy from Washington. What their proposals would do is help trap us in this anemic economy, strangle small businesses and Main Street, and destroy our ability to finance America’s economic growth.’’
Warren hit back with a Facebook post.
“Wow! Tom Donohue and the Chamber think the biggest economic problem in the country is that the giant banks need a bigger voice in Washington,’’ Warren said in the Friday post. “And the Chamber is ready to step in with its army of lobbyists so the big banks will have another chance to cheat families and tear our economy apart.’’
Many political prognosticators, including those in the financial world, give Warren low odds of joining Clinton on the ticket because they believe it doesn’t makes a whole lot of sense for either woman.
For Warren, she’d be giving up a Senate seat she’s turned into a uniquely powerful national bully pulpit to tether herself to someone else’s agenda.
For Clinton, alienating financial and business players with a Warren pick could make it harder to strike legislative deals on key priorities such as infrastructure spending, an overhaul of the tax code, and even Clinton’s package of financial sector fixes.
But Warren could give the Clinton campaign a jolt of excitement, particularly among the young progressives who adored her rival Bernie Sanders. None of the other oft-mentioned VP candidates can claim the same national star power. That includes Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, a Spanish-speaking, former swing-state governor who is lately rumored to be at the top of Clinton’s running-mate list.
A Warren pick could also help shore up Clinton on the subject of her Wall Street ties. During the primary, Sanders cast her as a tool of Wall Street and other special interests, pummeling her for giving lucrative speeches to Goldman Sachs and taking fat campaign checks from the financial sector. The presumptive GOP presidential nominee, Donald Trump, is now seeking to capitalize on those same issues.
Some financial executives don’t want to criticize Warren because they fear the comments could increase pressure on Clinton to more fully embrace their bete noir.
“The more they scream, the more they’re making the case to put her on the ticket,’’ said Bart Naylor, a financial services advocate with Public Citizen, a consumer watchdog group.
Clinton, meanwhile, is seeking to exploit business’s fear of Trump and the economic consequences of his trade and immigration stances.
“Just like he shouldn’t have his finger on the button, he shouldn’t have his hands on our economy,’’ Clinton said in a recent speech.
Critics of Wall Street, meanwhile, are pondering what a Clinton-Warren ticket would mean for their priorities.
Naylor of Public Citizen said he first greeted the Warren VP buzz with concern, given that she has been such an effective champion in the Senate. But now he’s rooting for a Warren selection.
“The one thing that’s different about [Warren], that makes her stand out, and that was true from Day One, is that she is not loyal to a person, namely her own party’s president,’’ Naylor said. He believes Warren is so independent that she would quit the vice presidency if Clinton pursued policy positions her number two could not stomach. “And so knowing that, [Clinton] would do right by banking stuff.’’
For all this musing, the bottom line is that Warren will be a force for financial players and others in business to reckon with, whether she’s in the White House or at the Capitol, said Camden Fine, president of the Independent Community Bankers of America, a trade group representing small banks.
“She is going to make a significant difference in policy making regardless of which perch she happens to sit on,’’ he said. Whether it’s one of his community bank members or a big Wall Street bank, “you’re not going to escape dealing with her.’’
Victoria McGrane can be reached at victoria.mcgrane@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @vgmac.
