The raving vortex of gibberish that is Donald Trump’s presidential campaign could destroy the very institution that has fueled his claim to political credibility thus far: New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary. Trump’s consistent lead in the polls has lent him an air of inevitability in the race.
New Hampshire’s status is secured by state law and the deference of national political party officials who reluctantly indulge the state’s insistence that it go first. Its case is built upon two powerful arguments:
1. New Hampshire is a small state (125 miles wide) in which lesser-known presidential candidates can, with sweat and good snow boots, defeat vastly better-known and better-funded rivals.
2. New Hampshire voters are a savvy lot who perform a national public service by seriously vetting the candidates.
A Trump victory in New Hampshire would deal a potentially fatal blow to both of those arguments. As of Jan. 22, Trump had made only 34 stops in New Hampshire, three fewer than Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who dropped out of the presidential race in September, according to cable TV channel NECN’s candidate tracker. Instead of retail campaigning, Trump offers performance art disguised as rallies.
The universal name recognition conferred by his celebrity status and the saturation media coverage of his every utterance allow him to dominate the conversation. His rivals tromp the campaign trail from Berlin to Salem in his shadow, struggling to attain the currency of the modern presidential campaign — attention.
Then there is the seduction of New Hampshire’s electorate.
New Hampshire voters have more electoral experience than those in any other state. From town meeting to the 424-member Legislature to the Executive Council to the two-year terms for governor, Granite Staters are deeply versed in self-government. Factor in a century of presidential primaries and it becomes clear they are America’s undisputed electoral heavyweights.
This experience confers legitimacy. Defenders and admirers of the New Hampshire primary have long held that the discernment of the New Hampshire voter justifies holding the first primary in this remote, snow-swept state.
The late New Hampshire Governor Hugh Gregg quoted C-SPAN founder Brian Lamb as saying the New Hampshire primary is “always going to be important . . . because you’re smart enough to figure out for yourselves if a candidate is pulling your chain.’’
Now comes Trump, chain-pulling king. The Globe reported last year that Trump speaks at a fourth-grade level. His campaign rhetoric is as incoherent as it is simplistic, his policies vague and contradictory. His entire campaign is built upon a vacuous absurdity — that all of America’s ills can be cured by one massive, Trumptastic dose of New York City machismo. His campaign is, in short, a classic cult of personality, as devoid of substance as a chart-topping boy band ballad.
If New Hampshire voters fall for this seduction on Feb. 9, they risk destroying their credibility as America’s presidential gatekeepers. State law notwithstanding, in 2020 the political parties and candidates would have a stronger case than ever before for telling New Hampshire primary voters, “You’re fired!’’
Andrew Cline, a former editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader, is a New Hampshire-based writer and communications consultant.
