Within Peter Abraham’s look at the Red Sox’ starting pitching depth options is this striking observation: Only three of the 10 playoff teams from 2015 (Astros, Cubs, Dodgers) had multiple 200-inning pitchers, and two playoff teams (Mets, Yankees) didn’t have any.
In 2015, there were just 28 pitchers in the majors who reached 200 innings — less than one per team. That total was easily the lowest of the expansion era, which had never before seen fewer than 31 in a non-strike year.
This shift forces a recalibration of expectations. Whereas teams once could plan on two or three 200-inning pitchers (as recently as 2005, there were 50, or 1.67 per team), now such teams represent exceptions. Among the reasons is that rotations are skewing younger but the dominant arms are being protected with bubble wrap. At the same time, the expanding dominance of bullpen arms permits teams to ask less of their starters.
Those forces are converging in a way that seems at times counterintuitive: The stuff exhibited by starters is more overpowering than ever (as seen in velocity, strikeouts, and swing-and-miss numbers) yet less is being asked of them.
A few years ago, that created a middle-innings gap that elite offenses could pillage. But the recent growth of dominant bullpen arms has bridged the divide, in a way that should reframe expectations about what kind of innings load an elite pitcher might contribute — particularly in an era when teams want to protect arms for three to four rounds of the postseason.
In eight seasons in the 1980s, there were 50 or more 200-inning pitchers, including 59 in 1985 — when there were four fewer teams in baseball. In 2015, there were 56 pitchers who went 180 or more innings. In short, 180 is the new 200.
Of course, no pitcher’s innings load will be scrutinized as much as Clay Buchholz’s. As Abraham noted, he encountered his standard spring broken record of durability questions in his initial session with the media.
When healthy, Buchholz exhibits an efficiency that is a hallmark of 200-inning pitchers. He averaged 6.3 innings per start last year, a mark matched by just 30 other pitchers who made at least 15 starts; and 21 of those 30 hit the 200-inning plateau.
If Buchholz were capable of getting to 30 starts, he’d represent one of the better bets in baseball to reach 200 innings. But, of course, within that “if’’ lies an endless array of questions.
Is it likely, then, that Buchholz could reach 200 innings for the first time in his career in 2016, his age 31 season? Of course not. But it’s also not impossible. Of the 160 pitchers in the expansion era (1961 to 2015) who have logged 200 or more innings in their age 31 seasons, 23 (14 percent) had never reached that threshold through their age 30 season.
It would be foolish, certainly, to bet on Buchholz to reach 200 innings this season. Still, if he can get anywhere near, say, 180, in the context of the modern game, that would represent a significant accomplishment.
Follow Alex Speier on Twitter at @alexspeier.
