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Rosengren pushes for 3 more rate increases
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren says low jobless rates may cause pressure on wages and prices to rise.
By Deirdre Fernandes
Globe Staff

If forecasters are right and the US economy grows at a faster pace and the unemployment rate drops even further this year, the recovery may not be sustainable in the long run, warned Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren.

Rosengren reiterated his call Wednesday for the Fed’s monetary policy group to increase a key interest rate three more times this year to keep the economy from overheating.

“With conditions now consistent with full employment and the Fed’s inflation target, in my view, monetary policymakers should certainly continue on the path of gradual normalization, and continue to explore its pace,’’ according to prepared remarks from Rosengren’s speech Wednesday to the Central Vermont Chamber of Commerce.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee raised rates a quarter point in March and signaled two more likely increases in 2017. But Rosengren, who is currently not a member of the policy committee, has urged an additional rate increase.

Rosengren had been a staunch opponent of raising rates in the aftermath of the recession, when unemployment was high. But the unemployment rate in April dropped to 4.4 percent, a 10-year-low, and many forecasters expect it to dip even further by the end of 2017.

“Such low unemployment rates would likely cause increased pressure on wages and prices, and signal an economy on a pace exceeding its sustainable level,’’ Rosengren said.

He dismissed concerns that slow bank loan growth and global uncertainty could indicate the economy remains weak and needs more support from a low-interest rate policy.

Banks have increased their lending during this recovery, but at a far slower pace than in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, Rosengren acknowledged.

But that may reflect the depth of the recent financial crisis.

Firms and households were eager to shrink their debt in the wake of the Great Recession, Rosengren said.

And banks had to tighten their lending standards as they dealt with troubled assets remaining from the recession, holding on to more capital as a buffer.

During the recovery, small firms have also turned to alternative sources, such as financial technology firms and non-bank lenders, for their capital, Rosengren said.

“Bank loan growth has not been as robust as in previous cycles. This likely reflects the nature of the crisis, recession and recovery — and the continued substitution of credit from capital markets and non-bank lenders for bank loans — rather than particular weakness in underlying economic conditions,’’ he said.

Deirdre Fernandes can be reached at deirdre.fernandes@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @fernandesglobe.