Print      
Brexit talks could drag on for years, ambassador warns
In a slight, May is asked to leave EU summit dinner
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, European Parliament president Martin Schulz, and Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain spoke Thursday before a summit in Brussels. (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images)
By Stephen Castle
New York Times

LONDON — Struck off the guest list for dinner at a European Union summit, Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, faced a second embarrassment Thursday over warnings that trade talks on quitting the bloc could last a decade, and even then might fail.

Despite the June 23 referendum decision to leave the European Union, Britain remains a full member until the end of negotiations on the British exit, known as Brexit, which May aims to complete by spring 2019.

Britain’s ambiguous, and increasingly isolated, position was underscored by the format for the gathering in Brussels Thursday in which the other 27 leaders were due to debate their own strategy for Brexit over dinner, without May.

The awkwardness May faced when she was politely asked to leave the room was compounded by a leaked warning from her own top aide in Brussels, highlighting the mind-numbing complexity of undoing four decades of European integration.

According to the BBC, the advice, given to ministers in October by Ivan Rogers, Britain’s ambassador to the European Union, suggested that completing talks on a new trade relationship with the bloc could take 10 years — and even then might not survive ratification by the 27 other nations.

May’s office did not deny the substance of the report, but it said the ambassador was reflecting the views of other member countries, not his own assessment of the situation.

Nevertheless, it presents a stark contrast to some British assertions that a new relationship could be struck within the two-year timetable envisaged under the formal process for withdrawal, which May intends to trigger by the end of March. Even this timetable may be optimistic, because Michel Barnier, one of the European Union’s lead negotiators, has said that in reality, a deal would have to be done within 18 months to allow time for ratification.

In the meantime, Britons remain fiercely divided over Brexit, with supporters encouraged by the fact that the economy has so far not suffered the dire fate predicted by some before the referendum. Their opponents say the negative effects will become visible next year, after being delayed by the post-referendum stimulus injected into the economy by the Bank of England and a competitive edge gained by the depreciation of the pound sterling.

While some of those who favor Brexit fret that they could be cheated of their referendum victory, many businesses worry about the apparent lack of a coherent government strategy, almost six months after the referendum.

Their big fear is that two years of negotiation will fail to yield a trade deal, leading to a “cliff edge’’ plan in which import and export tariffs are applied with little time to prepare.

On Wednesday, David Davis, the minister responsible for negotiating British exit, suggested that a transitional arrangement might be possible to overcome the risk of such economic disruption, providing that the broad outlines of the final deal are settled by the end of the two-year period.

“If you build a bridge, you need to have both sides established before you build the bridge,’’ he told lawmakers, while adding that it was “perfectly possible to know what the end game will be in two years.’’

Inside the British government, civil servants are working to assess the potential economic impact of Brexit on different sectors of the economy.